Match stats: England vs Wales
| Category | England | Wales |
| Group points | 3 | 0 |
| Goal difference | +3 (4 : 1) | –6 (1 : 7) |
| Average goals per match | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Average goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 3.5 |
| xG (expected goals) per match | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| xGA (expected goals against) per match | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Win probability (Opta) | 75.8 % | 10.2 % |
| Head-to-head (W-D-L) | 9-0-1 (37 : 2 goals) | 1-0-9 |
| Top scorer of the tournament | Lauren James (2 goals) | Jess Fishlock (1 goal) |
| Top assist-provider | Alessia Russo (3 assists) | Carrie Jones (1 assist) |
England are unbeaten in their last ten meetings with Wales. A draw is enough to send the Lionesses through, though they are aiming for a win. For Wales the dream scenario is a 4-0 victory plus a French win – virtually impossible.
Expert commentary
England (coach: Sarina Wiegman)
- After an exhilarating 4-0 win over the Netherlands, England want to impose their rhythm and dominance.
- Lauren James – key figure with two goals, dubbed a “cheat code” for her creativity.
- Alessia Russo (0 goals so far, 3 assists) could break her scoring duck against Wales’s porous defence.
- Keira Walsh is regaining her rhythm – scored against the Netherlands; her control in midfield should dictate play.
Wales (coach: Rhian Wilkinson)
- Tournament debutants, pointless so far with seven goals conceded. Jess Fishlock is the veteran who scored Wales’s first goal at a major finals, but age is catching up.
- Goalkeeper Olivia Clark (Leicester) is highlighted as a defensive pillar, yet the numbers tell of struggles – only one goal scored overall.
- The “Dragons” would need a 4-0 win and help from France – an extremely unlikely scenario.
What could decide the match?
- Wiegman’s attack – if England fully exploit the creativity of James, Russo and Hemp, Wales may buckle in the first half.
- Welsh focus – whether they gamble or sit deep, a surprise is possible, especially through Fishlock’s experience.
- Tactical balance – will England allow Wales counter-attacks? Quick transitions could spring a shock, but are unlikely to alter the result.
Summary and expert prediction
England are overwhelming favourites: historical, statistical and qualitative superiority points their way. They aim for a clear win.
Wales – brave on paper but with minimal firepower – will fight for pride, yet the task is virtually impossible.
Expert pick: comfortable England victory, 3-0 or 4-1, with possession dominance and xG of 2.5 +.
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